Estimating the climate change mitigation potential of the EU’s CAP Strategic Plans
- Evaluation
- Climate and Climate Change
- CAP Strategic Plans
- Evaluation
- Environment
- Environmental Impacts
- Sustainability
The study, coordinated by the European Evaluation Helpdesk for the CAP, provides a meaningful first step in evaluating how the agricultural sector can support the EU’s climate ambitions.
The report ‘'Rough estimate of the climate change mitigation potential of the CAP Strategic Plans (EU-27) over the 2023-2027 period’’ explores how the 28 CAP Strategic Plans (CSP) across the EU-27 could potentially contribute to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing carbon removals. The study represents a first attempt to quantify how CSP instruments might contribute to the EU’s climate objectives.
The study is based on planning data from the CSPs to estimate areas of specific farming practices, and linking those to emission and removal coefficients. On this basis, the potential contribution to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhancing carbon removals is estimated at approximately 35 million tonnes (Mt) of CO₂ equivalent per year.
Key contributors include eco-schemes, environmental-climate interventions (ENVCLIM), and adherence to good agricultural and environmental conditions (GAECs), particularly regarding soil cover and crop rotation. Crucially, the estimated mitigation potential is largely attributed to carbon sequestration on croplands, with 79% of the total stemming from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities. Practices such as cover cropping, organic farming, and diversification play a pivotal role.
In addition to mitigation potential, the potential of GAECs and interventions to contribute to protecting the carbon stored in soils and woody elements is also estimated. Notably, the maintenance of organic farming alone accounts for more than half of this estimated carbon protection potential contribution.
Understanding the methodology
To generate these estimates, the study developed a link between CAP instruments and their potential climate benefits using a systematic, multi-step approach:
- Data extraction – Programming data from approved CSPs was collected, identifying which interventions and GAECs have potential for climate impact.
- Practice mapping – Each intervention or GAEC was linked to specific farming practices, such as cover cropping, crop rotation, or organic conversion.
- Area estimation – The estimated area applying to each practice was calculated.
- Emission factors – Scientific literature review by the Joint Research Centre provided average emission or removal coefficients per practice, which were applied to the estimated areas.
Aggregation – Results were aggregated at the intervention, CSP, and EU levels to determine overall mitigation and protection potentials.
Importantly, the methodology uses assumptions and simplifications due to limitations of the available data. For example, the analysis does not fully account for whether practices are newly introduced or maintained from the past, which may lead to overestimations. Also, farming practices with likely adverse climate effects were excluded. On the other hand, the study does not account for the contribution of other policies and measures implemented in Member States beyond the CSPs to tackle climate change.
National Findings in a nutshell
While the overall figures are EU-wide, the study also notes variation across Member States:
- Germany and France show significant mitigation potential due to extensive planned output for organic farming and cover cropping practices. These countries contribute a large share to the EU-wide carbon removal total through cropland management.
- Ireland and Denmark, which have higher livestock-related emissions, show relatively limited mitigation potential in this report. This is because the study does not account for national livestock-targeted policies outside the CSPs, despite these being major emitters through enteric fermentation and manure management.
- Poland and Romania have considerable mitigation potential from expanding sustainable farming practices on large agricultural areas. Their CSPs heavily promote crop rotation and soil cover, key practices for soil-based carbon sequestration.
- Spain and Italy stand out in carbon protection through forestry and organic farming maintenance. Their INVEST interventions also support sustainable forest management, boosting their contributions to the LULUCF sector.
Policy context and future outlook
When placed in the context of EU climate goals, these estimates account for 10% of the net carbon removals reported in the national GHG inventories under the LULUCF category, and 71% of the required increase in sink capacity to achieve the LULUCF 2030 target. In terms of GHG emissions reduction, the estimates represent 1.4% of the non-CO2 emissions reported for agriculture in the national inventories, and up to 32% of the distance to the emission level for the agricultural sector targeted in 2030 as defined in the mix scenario of the Fit for 55 impact assessment under the Effort Sharing Regulation.
Despite the positive outlook, the report is cautious about the actual impact of these plans. It acknowledges that results are indicative, subject to uncertainties, and dependent on farmer uptake and additionality—whether supported practices are genuinely new or already in place.
The report concludes with a set of recommendations to improve the robustness of future assessments. To enhance accuracy and policy effectiveness, the report recommends refining methodologies by using national coefficients, collecting better data on actual uptake, and distinguishing new practices from ongoing ones. These improvements will help Member States align their agricultural strategies with EU climate goals while tailoring them to local contexts.
Read the study ‘'Rough estimate of the climate change mitigation potential of the CAP Strategic Plans (EU-27) over the 2023-2027 period’’.
