Evaluating LEADER efforts to understand long-term effects

• Statistics on structural changes in the local geographical area.
• An overview of the LEADER actions carried out in this area.
• The results of a survey of the project owners for these actions with questions on the impact.

The evaluation work had its driving force in a problem formulation that revolved around difficulties in establishing understanding, approaches, knowledge and tools to achieve long-term effects of work with projects as policy instruments. It aims to design a theory-based model for evaluating the effects of project activities. The first part consisted of analysing the intervention logic of project activities at three levels: at the national level in the Rural Development Programme, locally in local development strategies and at the project level in applications. The second part aimed to evaluate the impact of individual projects. In the third part, the impact assessment model was designed and tested in two LEADER areas. Conclusions were influenced by the cooperation with managers in five LEADER areas but have been discussed in several seminars and meetings with managers at the Swedish Board of Agriculture and the rural network. Conclusions have also been drawn from the input provided by the research advisory group, which read and reviewed the reports.

The evaluation revealed major weaknesses in the intervention logic. The levels are not connected, the red thread is thin and the long-term effect goals are missing or unclearly formulated. The path to achieving local development impacts is often diffuse and rarely concrete. There are few links to regional development work and few development tracks. Both national programmes and local development strategies are characterised by weak impact thinking. The focus is more on short-term project results than on long-term rural development. However, in the applications for support to implement the projects, the link to structural effects is not as weak; about one-third of the 69 applications analysed have a strong impact mindset. In these individual applications, issues of impact organisation and funding are also more developed and explained. In the framework of the evaluation, 24 project actions were analysed, which the managers in 12 LEADER areas highlighted as particularly impactful. Of these efforts, about half have, to a large extent, led to structural effects. The effects observed were new jobs, new companies, more visitors and even more housing. There were several success factors, the most important of which were:

• The project owners' ability to think long-term and develop impact goals.
• The working philosophy of the LEADER method with local collaboration.
• The ability to take on already existing development processes and social structures in the area.
• The ability to work commercially with sustainable impact financing after the end of the project funds.

The structural impact of LEADER interventions can be increased by:

• Specify and coordinate intervention logic and impact thinking in national.programmes, local development strategies and guidelines for project applications.
• Train LAGs, offices and project owners in impact thinking.
• Implement routines and support structures that demand, follow up and report measurable impact targets.
• Systematically evaluate LEADER effects and use the results to learn and manage the business.