Rough estimate of the climate change mitigation potential of the CAP Strategic Plans (EU-27) over the 2023-2027 period

The study, ‘Rough estimate of the climate change mitigation potential of the CAP Strategic Plans (EU-27) over the 2023-2027 period’, establishes, for the first time, a link between CAP Strategic Plans (CSP) instruments, such as good agricultural and environmental conditions (GAECs) and CAP interventions and their mitigation potential, across the 27 Member States (i.e. 28 CSPs).

Its methodology relies on programming data extracted from the CSPs of the 2023-2027 CAP programming period, rough estimates of expected uptake levels, and on average emission and removal coefficients for farming practices, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, enhancing carbon removals and conserving existing carbon stocks.

The methodology employed is based on a series of assumptions and simplifications necessary at various stages of the analysis. It depends on the availability of coefficient values assigned to the farming practices to estimate their potential contribution in reducing GHG emissions, enhancing carbon removals or protecting carbon stocks in soil or biomass (in comparison to conventional farming practices). It is also contingent on the information in the CSPs to estimate an area covered by different farming practices.

The study finds that the 28 CSPs have the potential to contribute positively to GHG emission reduction and enhanced removals, with an estimated 35 Mt CO₂e per year on average over the 2023-2027 period. In terms of farming practices, crop rotation or diversification, expansion of cover crops, and conversion to organic farming account for 74% of the estimated mitigation potential. Additionally, the analysis of the 28 CSPs indicates a potential positive contribution to the protection of existing carbon sinks, amounting to 32 Mt CO₂e per year across the EU.

However, whether this potential will be fully realised depends on the final uptake of the measures by farmers, the extent to which supported practices deliver additional benefits each year and whether these practices were already financed under the previous CAP programming period (i.e. the deadweight effect), which cannot be assessed at this stage. Additionally, actions outside the CSPs will contribute to achieving the emission reduction and removal targets for 2030.

This study can serve as a starting point for refining the methodology using Member State data and improving GHG emissions and removal inventories. Importantly, the study does not account for the contribution of other policies and measures implemented by Member States beyond the CSPs and their mitigation potential.

The general methodology is available upon request to evaluation@eucapnetwork.eu.