Spatial econometric models for evaluating RDP measures
This project demonstrates how to account for the spatial dependence in the data used in the evaluation and advances with relevant econometric estimations for the different assessments. Results illustrate that important result indicators suffer from strong spatial dependency.
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Output Description
The ‘SPARD’ project focuses on the Rural Development Programmes 2007-2013 and the structure and content of the corresponding Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF). As a result, the project’s contributions to monitoring and evaluation are related only to evaluation methods. The project examines how the spatial econometric methodology can evaluate RDP impacts on productivity growth, economic growth, and environmental protection.
SPARD developed tools to analyse to what extent EU rural development measures had the intended impact on:
- the economy through ‘productivity growth’,
- economic growth and tourism through ‘nights spent’ in tourist collective accommodation establishments,
- environmental targets through ‘nitrogen surplus.’
The project shows how to account for the spatial dependence in the data and advances with relevant econometric estimations for the different assessments. Results illustrate that in agricultural labour productivity and nitrogen surplus, spatial dependency is strongly present in the dependent variables (the result indicator) and modestly present in tourism.
The tools included Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and spatial econometrics. A wide range of indicators, such as farm size and gross value added (GVA) in the primary sector, life-long learning, or unemployment were examined with ESDA methods. For all variables, there was an amount of spatial autocorrelation. Even if autocorrelation was low, some individual regions stood out as positive or negative clusters. Spatial econometric results showed that RDP spending positively affected labour productivity. The effect was more substantial in southern rural and urban areas and northern intermediate regions. When environmental indicators are assessed frequently, there are omitted variable issues due to missing or non-existing data such as soil types, local weather conditions or micro-climate, etc. These omitted variables are spatially correlated and their effect on the environmental impact indicators can be captured by spatial econometrics, as shown in SPARD’s methodological contribution.
Relevance for monitoring and evaluation of the CAP
The project offers a methodological framework for examining the effects of RDP programmes on different result and impact indicators considering the spatial dependence in the data. Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and spatial econometrics can support evaluators to accomplish this aim. The project tests the proposed framework on three strands of indicators (i.e. productivity, growth and the environment represented by productivity in agriculture, local growth through tourism and environmental impacts of surplus nutrients). It also applies the proposed methodology in five different case study areas that reflect the economic and environmental variability of the EU. Therefore, the project is directly relevant for evaluations. The Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and spatial econometrics methodological framework can address evaluation issues related to more recent and future result and impact indicators.
The spatial econometrics evaluation framework can be used under any situation irrespective of the changing monitoring framework or the change in impact indicators. The only prerequisite is the possession of high econometric skills.
Relevance of the output per CAP Objectives
- Specific Objective 1 - Ensure a fair income for farmers
- Specific Objective 2 - Increase competitiveness
- Specific Objective 5 - Environmental care
- Specific Objective 6 - Preserve landscape and biodiversity
- Specific Objective 8 - Vibrant rural areas
Additional output information
Data collection systems used:
- IACS/LPIS (in the sense of the old CMEF)
- Eurostat
Type of output:
- Methodology
Associated evaluation approaches:
- Desk research
- Data analysis
- Impact evaluation ex ante
- Impact evaluation ex post
Spatial scale:
- Farm holding
- Regional
Project information
Spatial Analysis of Rural Development Measures
- To provide a framework for organising the collection and use of regional key baseline data of evaluation results and of other statistical and economic information of Rural Development Programmes (2007-2013) in a systematic, clear and concise way.
- To explain the causal relationships between regional characteristics and needs, on the one hand, and the Rural Development Programmes (2007-2013) implementation and success in their spatial dimension, on the other.
- To develop and apply a spatial econometric modelling approach.
- To build a tool that helps policymakers both at EU and Member State/regional level to design better targeted Rural Development Programmes.
Project’s timeframe: 2010 – 2013
Contacts of project holder: Dr. Annette Piorr, Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research apiorr@zalf.de
CORDIS database: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/244944
Territorial coverage: Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia, The Netherlands