Learning from Research

Crop area and crop production estimation for small farms

This product developed a crop type map that contains crop area and production estimates, specifically for small farms.

Output Description

SALSA developed an estimation of the area occupied by the key crop products, as well as, its crop production in small farms for each region. Crop area and crop production estimation for small farms offers an average for five years. The predictability and reliability of the data is very important, SALSA has managed to produce fairly accurate information using a complex method. This product in addition to another output, a crop type map, covers over 21 reference regions (case study areas) of the project (20 of them in the EU). These outputs serve the overarching aim of SALSA to support the assessment of small farms’ role in contributing to food production and food security. More specifically, SALSA aimed to demonstrate the benefit of remote sensing technology in providing accurate and timely information on the crop types, area extent, and yield estimates. Such information is crucial to objectively quantify the crop production capabilities of small farms

For the purpose of the project, small farms were defined for statistical purposes as those with less than 5 hectares or with 8 economic units.
The project used also a participatory approach that ended up with a more complete, not statistical, definition depending on the position of the farm in the food chain/system. The approach was used to select small farms to be included in the SALSA survey, and it was flexible to consider what in the context of each region and in relation to its farm structures, was relevant to be classified as a small farm, and was accepted as such.

For the estimation of the crop area, the area covered by each key crop product cultivated by small farms in each region was extracted from the regional statistics and regressed against the unbiased crop area (plots < 5ha) estimated by Sentinel using linear regression. The results of crop area estimation show that crop area obtained from Sentinel data can be used with confidence, in particular for those regions where this information is absent from official statistics. However, given this is a snapshot picture, the point validation may be needed in the future, to account for climate and other disturbance factors that may have affected yields. 

The relation between crop area from both data sources (official statistics and Sentinel data) showed significant and very high correlation (R2 = 0.96), indicating that statistical data sources concerning small farms are more accurate than expected. This correspondence also confirms the suitability of Sentinel data in providing accurate information about crop area extent in complex agricultural systems. Key crop types mapped include cereals, wheat, vineyards, peaches, vegetables, olive grove. Small farms play a central role for some reference regions for a set of key crop products (e.g. potatoes in Rezesowsk in Poland, vineyards in Illeia in Greece).

For the estimation of crop production, the project combined unbiased crop area estimations with the field-level yields of the key crops. The crop production estimations for a set of key crop products were obtained by combining information from interviews with small farmers, where they were asked about the yield of their products, validated with information form the technical staff in the region and from published data. The results of crop production estimation show that crop production levels (ton/ha/year) differ significantly within key crops and across reference regions. 

It also shows that in many regions studied, the share of production by small farms is higher than expected. 

The total estimated production by small farms in each region was also crossed with the total consumption estimates with data from ESA in order to assess what was the share of regional consumption needs that may be satisfied by small farm production. This  analysis based on the survey data was complemented with the one done at the food system level. 

Relevance for monitoring and evaluation of the CAP

Data provision: A valuable crop data set has been built that could be used in the evaluation of the CAP in these areas. The approach for developing this crop data set can be replicated in other regions/countries. Official statistics and Sentinel data can be combined to produce a wide set of data in relation to crop areas and crop production.

Remote sensing technology can provide accurate and timely information on crop types, area extent and yield estimates. Such information is useful to objectively quantify the crop production capabilities of small farms and the potential impact that CAP interventions may have on these capabilities. 

Another potential application could be to use this data from small farms for assessing investment measures. Given that in some countries small farms account for a very large percentage of their farm sector, and that these farms also receive CAP funding, having data on them is very useful, especially for designing programme measures. These resources are crucial in developing regional farm systems that contribute to sustainable food production, improve farm incomes, as well as, increasing the diversity of food systems, thus contributing to their resilience. 

Comparison of crop productivities: Crop type maps that contains crop area and production estimates can be used to extrapolate productivity from one region to a wider territory and compare crop production productivity patterns in neighbouring regions. There are samples in different regions covered by SALSA. However, in order to actually use the methodology in other non-neighbouring regions, for instance in other countries, one may need to reproduce the data, collect the data.

Complementarity with FADN: The main value added of the SALSA crop production estimates is that they make visible what cannot be found in official sources like FADN, which does not capture small farm statistics (due to minimum threshold). Even in agricultural censuses there is a need for a minimum size so as to be included. This is the most frequent challenge for evaluators concerning FADN representativeness. This tool allows the evaluators to have at least a very good approximation of what is missing from FADN and judge if this is important in terms of UAA, production volumes and values (if average prices are applied). Irrespective of whether the evaluation refers to small farms, this is a pertinent tool for assessing FADN’s representativeness in certain areas and, if needed, complement the FADN estimates. 

Policy making and evaluation: Study countries produced maps of crop productivity and changes of small farm productivity. There was also a need for explanations of why small farms produce, i.e. the enabling environment, e.g., policy measures. For this reason, in all SALSA countries there were communities of practice, which were networks consisting of organisations, small farms and small farm businesses, NGOs, policymakers. Results were discussed within these groups and the feedback was positive. Stakeholders consider that data could be useful for future policy making and evaluation. For instance, for selecting projects or for the set up of inerventions targeted at this type of farms, which can serve to better understand the programme/measure intervention logic. 

The methodology estimating production uses, partly, sentinel earth observations and requires the crop type map tool of SALSA. Thus, the usual constraints and limitations apply. The tool's adoption requires adaptation and application of the algorithms and training to recognize the crop types of the region or the MS. 

Relevance of the output per CAP Objectives

  • Specific Objective 1 - Ensure a fair income for farmers 
  • Specific Objective 4 - Climate change action
  • Specific Objective 5 - Environmental care
  • Specific Objective 6 - Preserve landscape and biodiversity
  • Specific Objective 9 - Protect food and health quality

Additional output information

Data collection systems used:

  • Copernicus
  • National land use surveys
  • Ad-hoc data collection

Type of output:

  • New/improved data for M&E

Associated evaluation approaches:

  • Data analysis
  • Impact evaluation ex ante
  • Impact evaluation ongoing

Spatial scale:

  • Parcel
  • Farm holding
  • Regional

Project information

Salsa logo

The overall goal is to provide a better understanding of the current and potential contribution of small farms and food businesses to sustainable Food and Nutrition Security (FNS).

Specific objectives: 

  • Assess the current role of small farms and small food businesses in achieving sustainable FNS in Europe and in selected African regions. 
  • Evaluate the means by which small farms can respond to expected increases in demand for food, feed and fibre of an increasing population in an increasingly resource constrained world. 
  • Assess the capacity of small farms and small food businesses to contribute to FNS under alternative future scenarios for 2030/50 and to identify the main determinants of the capacity to respond. 
  • To help better tailor international cooperation and research and to develop tools to guide decision makers in enhancing the role of small farms in FNS. 
  • Establish a community of practice and to enhance the use of the FAO’s channels as well as European and African networks and platforms, incluidng the European Network for Rural Development (ENRD), the European LEADER Association for Rural Development (ELARD) and the European Innovation Partnership ‘Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability’ (EIP Agri). 

Project’s timeframe: 01/03/2016 – 31/07/2020

Contacts of project holder: Teresa Pinto-Correia, scientific coordinator, Instituto Mediterrâneo de Agricultura Ambiente e Desenvolvimento (MED), University of Evora (Portugal) mtpc@uevora.pt 

CORDIS databasehttps://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/677363Open link in new windowOpen link in new window

Territorial coverage: Greece, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain

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Documents

English language

SALSA presentation at the Good Practice Workshop of the Evaluation Helpdesk

(PDF – 2.16 MB)