Participatory foresight analysis on the future potential role of small farms and small food businesses in food and nutrition security
Participatory foresight analysis was used to assess the capacity of small farms and small food businesses to contribute to food and nutrition security under alternative future scenarios for 2030, 2050 to identify the main determinants of their capacity to respond.
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Output Description
The SALSA project aimed to assess the capacity of small farms and small food businesses to contribute to food and nutrition security under alternative future scenarios for 2030, 2050 to identify the main determinants of their capacity to respond.
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For the purpose of the project, small farms were defined for statistical purposes as those with less than 5 hectares or with 8 economic units.
The project used also a participatory approach that ended up with a more complete, not statistical, definition depending on the position of the farm in the food chain/system. The approach was used to select small farms to be included in the SALSA survey, and it was flexible to consider what in the context of each region and in relation to its farm structures, was relevant to be classified as a small farm, and was accepted as such.
A participatory foresight analysis was used, with three components:
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This component was based on three steps:
- selection of drivers of change for scenario development. The drivers of change include: Degree of access to managerial and technical innovations; Concentration in the food chain; Social values and cohesion (solidarity, awareness about small producers, willingness to cooperate, collective action); Public budget and expenditure; Consumers’ values and habits (health, environmental, not necessarily all simultaneously); Consumers’ values and habits (health, environmental, not necessarily all simultaneously); Access to environmental/ natural assets; Demography (rural/urban); International trade openness; Poverty.
- a set of different combinations of drivers and their possible states was selected to be presented to the workshop’s participants as the skeletons for the scenarios they would work on;
- short narratives were developed for each combination of drivers and states, giving coherence to the storyline.
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The second component concerned the selection of regions to carry out foresight analysis trying to cover a diversity of regional contexts for small farms and small farm businesses.
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The third component concerned the selection of participant stakeholders, ensuring diversity and balanced representation.
Participant stakeholders were:
- Public sector: policy makers and officials from different departments (agriculture, health, economic development).
- Business and industry: farmers’ unions, agricultural cooperatives, retailers, food processors, input providers.
- Local communities: Local Action Groups,
- NGOs: environmental groups, consumers’ associations, CSA
- Professional groups: veterinarians, surveyors,
- Scientists and researchers.
The structure of the participatory foresight workshops included:
- Visioning to assess the potential/desired role of small farms and small farm businesses in food and nutrition systems in 2030. Visioning is the process of creating a series of images or visions of the future. The term vision tends to be used to refer to a single and preferred future;
- Backcasting, to develop action plans. The process of working backwards from the definition of a possible future, in order to determine what needs to happen to make this future unfold and connect to the present. Backcasting identifies what actions must be taken to get there in terms of policies, programs and international agreements, trade, behavioural changes, technologies and practices, capacity development, etc.
- Development of regional scenario narratives, focusing particularly on the impact of such scenarios on small farms and small farm businesses and their contribution to food production, food and nutrition security;
- Addressing resilience and vulnerability, to identify main threats that may influence the contribution of small farms to food production and food and nutrition security.
Relevance for monitoring and evaluation of the CAP
Ex ante evaluation: This participatory approach for forecasting and analysing future scenarios is very pertinent for an ex ante evaluation. The 'Participatory foresight analysis' is a useful tool for strategic planning in the context of the ex ante evaluation. It can help identify the potential of small farms and small farm businesses to contrinute to food security and therefore contribute to planning policy interventions.
The participatory approach engaged simultaneously multiple stakeholders and used foresight thinking to attenuate/deactivate stakeholders' vested interests and build consensus. By involving a range of pertinent stakeholders, this approach ensures they can make coordinated decisions on policy making after a careful analysis of the potential of small farms for contributing to food and nutrition security.
Such new tools are useul for 'visioning' (objectives and future targets) and for 'back casting' (from needed actions and interventions in the future back to the present). The scenario analysis helps evaluate/assess the proposed interventions under alternative future settings, and to check the robustness of proposed interventions.
An ex ante exercise using this participatory approach can contribute to a debate on the future of small farms and small farm businesses beyond their role in food and nutrition systems. Furthermore, this is intimately linked to other food system outcomes, namely the preservation of rural landscapes and environmental services and the support to employment and rural communities.
Relevance of the output per CAP Objectives
- Specific Objective 1 - Ensure a fair income for farmers
- Specific Objective 3 - Improve farmers' position in the food chain
- Specific Objective 8 - Vibrant rural areas
- Specific Objective 9 - Protect food and health quality
Additional output information
Data collection systems used:
- Ad-hoc data collection
Type of output:
- Methodology
- Forecasting model/tool
Associated evaluation approaches:
- Scenario analysis
- Impact evaluation ex ante
Spatial scale:
- Farm holding
- Local
- Regional
Project information
The overall goal is to provide a better understanding of the current and potential contribution of small farms and food businesses to sustainable Food and Nutrition Security (FNS).
Specific objectives:
- Assess the current role of small farms and small food businesses in achieving sustainable FNS in Europe and in selected African regions.
- Evaluate the means by which small farms can respond to expected increases in demand for food, feed and fibre of an increasing population in an increasingly resource constrained world.
- Assess the capacity of small farms and small food businesses to contribute to FNS under alternative future scenarios for 2030/50 and to identify the main determinants of the capacity to respond.
- To help better tailor international cooperation and research and to develop tools to guide decision makers in enhancing the role of small farms in FNS.
- Establish a community of practice and to enhance the use of the FAO’s channels as well as European and African networks and platforms, incluidng the European Network for Rural Development (ENRD), the European LEADER Association for Rural Development (ELARD) and the European Innovation Partnership ‘Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability’ (EIP Agri).
Project’s timeframe: 01/03/2016 – 31/07/2020
Contacts of project holder: Teresa Pinto-Correia, scientific coordinator, Instituto Mediterrâneo de Agricultura Ambiente e Desenvolvimento (MED), University of Evora (Portugal) mtpc@uevora.pt
CORDIS database: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/677363
Territorial coverage: Greece, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain