Learning from Research

A mixed method approach to assess the impact of the young farmers scheme on structural change

This is a mixed method approach to assess the impact of the Young Farmers payment on structural change.

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Output Description

The low proportion of young farmers in EU farming systems is seen as an impediment to a competitive and resilient farming sector. 

To address this issue, the CAP is a key policy instrument that supports young farmers to stimulate their establishment in rural areas. The most significant measure is the Young Farmer payment (YFP) of Pillar I. It supplements the basic direct payment given to EU farmers 40 years old and under. It consists of direct income support per hectare for a period of five years. 

SUREFARM assesses the impact of the YFP on structural change, using a mixed method approach which has been implemented in two EU regions (the Altmark region in Germany and the Flanders region in Belgium) combining quantitative and qualitative methods 

First, the impact of the YFP is estimated using the agent-based model AgriPoliS, which has been extended to allow for the simulation of the farm succession process based on regional data. Three scenarios were simulated and analysed: i) no young farmers payments ii) maintaining the current level of young farmers payments iii) doubling the current level of young farmers payments (as proposed by the European Council of Young Farmers (CEJA)). 

Second, the AgriPolis model's simulation results were validated by regional stakeholders participating in a workshop organised in each of the regions. The workshop included a SWOT analysis with regional policy makers and experts for different policy scenarios for young farmer measures. 

Finally, the participatory workshops were used to obtain a qualitative assessment of the YFP and to develop policy recommendations. 

The Agricultural Policy Simulator (AgriPoliS) is a spatially explicit agent-based model used to study structural change as well as the effects of policies and shocks in European agriculture. Agent-based models are a bottom-up approach to modelling, wherein the modeller sets the rules, and the autonomous agents act and interact based on those rules. The decisions made by each individual agent shape the system and allow for emergent phenomena to be captured. In the AgriPoliS model, the myopic heterogeneous agents are the typical farms of a region, which have been scaled up to the region’s farm structural data. The agents’ interactions are through market competition, predominantly on the land market.
Statistics for the model were otbained from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) for the Altmark region (Germany) and from the statistical office of Belgium for the region of Flanders.

Relevance for monitoring and evaluation of the CAP

This mixed method approach is very relevant for evaluating interventions targeting young farmers. The application of the AgriPolis model in the two case study regions proved it to be a useful tool to predict the utility of the YFP on farm structure. It also proved to align well with stakeholder’s perceptions of the policy. 

The combination of the simulation model and the stakeholder assessment revealed that the YFP in Altmark (DE) and Flanders (BE) had little impact on young farmers’ decisions on whether to enter farming or not, due to several shortcomings with the YFP. For instance, many issues not covered by the policy need to be addressed to facilitate generational renewal, such as the perceived low social acceptance of agriculture, the workload, the uncertainty, and the incompatibility of farming as an occupation with modern expectations of work-life balance. Recommendations were also developed, suggesting that alternative approaches to supporting young farmers should address better the barriers to entry issue. 

These findings offer an excellent example of how this mixed method can be useful for evaluating interventions for young farmers. Since the method helps provide evidence for policy making, based on simulations/predictions, it is pertinent for ex ante evaluations and ex post evaluations that feed into future policy design. 

Although this approach has only been implemented in two case study regions, it may be replicated in other regions by following the same steps and provided there is data on typical farms of the region either in FADN or in national/regional statistical offices. 

Relevance of the output per CAP Objectives

  • Specific Objective 7 – Support generational renewal

Additional output information

Data collection systems used:

  • FADN(FSDN)
  • Ad-hoc data collection
  • National statistical office

Type of output:

  • Methodology
  • Forecasting model/tool

Associated evaluation approaches:

  • Scenario analysis
  • Impact evaluation ex ante
  • Impact evaluation ex post

Spatial scale:

  • Regional

Project information

Sure Farm logo

Towards SUstainable and REsilient EU FARMing systems 

To analyse, assess and improve the resilience and sustainability of farms and farming systems in the EU. 

Specific objectives: 

  • Develop a framework to measure the determinants of the resilience of current and future EU agricultural systems. 
  • Understand farmers’ risk behavior and risk management decisions in a comprehensive way in order to develop and test a set of effective and usable risk management strategies and decision support tools. 
  • Develop an improved farm demographic assessment tool. 
  • Develop a policy resilience assessment tool to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing policy framework (in particular the CAP). 
  • Develop an integrated impact assessment tool to make long-term projections towards the effective delivery of private and public goods. 
  • Identify pathways towards resilience and non-resilience, and synthesise lessons learned to design an enabling environment and construct roadmaps for implementation, co-created with public and private actors. 

Project’s timeframe: 2017 – 2021

Contacts of project holder: Miranda Meuwissen, Professor of risk management in food supply chains, Wageningen University & Research miranda.meuwissen@wur.nl 

Website: SURE-Farm: https://www.surefarmproject.eu/

CORDIS database : https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/727520  

Territorial coverage: Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden, The Netherlands

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