Exploring the potential of simulation models for assessing the CAP

The event report summarises the debate among participants during the ninth Good Practice Workshop, organised by the EU CAP Network with the support of the European Evaluation Helpdesk for the CAP, in Bari, Italy, on 3-4 April 2025, which centred on exploring the application of simulation models for CAP evaluations.

The event gathered 69 participants from 21 Member States, including Managing Authorities, CAP networks, evaluators, modelling specialists and other stakeholders engaged in agricultural policy assessment.

The workshop provided a platform for knowledge exchange regarding the role of simulation models in supporting evidence-based policy formulation, impact assessment and addressing data gaps, particularly with regard to Pillar 1 interventions and environmental evaluations.

Through case studies from Austria, the Horizon Europe project Tools4CAP, the Netherlands, and Hungary, as well as structured discussions, participants learned about the opportunities and limitations associated with the use of simulation models, such as the Positive Agricultural Sector Model Austria (PASMA) and the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact (CAPRI).

The interactions underscored the capacity of simulation models to quantify policy effects and forecast policy outcomes under alternative scenarios, while simultaneously highlighting challenges relating to data quality and accessibility, model complexity, technical expertise and the need for transparent communication of model assumptions and results.

A key conclusion of the workshop was that while simulation models cannot replace empirical evaluation methods in all circumstances, they represent a valuable tool for addressing information gaps and enhancing the strategic orientation of CAP evaluations.

A key methodological recommendation that emerged was the triangulation of simulation outputs with econometric and qualitative validation methods to ensure robustness and stakeholder legitimacy.

Future opportunities were identified for integrating artificial intelligence into modelling processes and for expected improvements in data availability through the transition from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) to the Farm Sustainability Data Network (FSDN).

The workshop further identified a series of strategic priorities for facilitating the adoption of simulation models, including the development of technical capacity within Managing Authorities, investment in reliable and interoperable data systems, fostering institutional partnerships with academic and research bodies, and cultivating a 'modelling culture# across the policy evaluation landscape.