Rough estimate of the soil protection potential of the CAP Strategic Plans over the 2023-2027 period – Follow-up with uptake data for 2023

The study ''Rough estimate of the soil protection potential of the CAP Strategic Plans over the 2023-2027 period – Follow-up with uptake data for 2023'' updates the study published in 2025, replacing planned implementation figures with actual 2023 uptake data drawn from Member States' annual performance reports.

Covering the same 13 CAP Strategic Plans (CSP) s as the original analysis (Czechia, Germany, Denmark, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Finland), the assessment applies a coefficient-based methodology linking specific farming practices supported through CAP interventions and Good Agricultural and Environmental Conditions (GAECs) to their potential effect on six soil health characteristics, soil organic carbon content, soil nitrogen, soil water retention capacity, soil packing density, nitrogen leaching, and runoff and soil erosion by water.

For each intervention, estimated implementation areas are combined with effect coefficients drawn from a meta-analysis-based database to produce both absolute and relative (compared to national baselines) estimates.

Results indicate a positive potential contribution of the studied CSP interventions across all six characteristics in 2023, though magnitudes vary considerably by country.

For example, at the aggregate level across the 13 CSPs, CAP interventions are estimated to have increased soil organic carbon content by 1.04%, soil nitrogen by 2.77%, while reducing soil erosion by water by 9.39%.

Soil management practices—particularly leaving crop residues on soil and reduced tillage—along with crop rotation and diversification, emerge as the practices driving most of the estimated effects. Because GAEC-related implementation data did not change materially in 2023, GAEC estimates were carried over unchanged from the initial study.

The report provides valuable insights into the potential contributions of different farm practices and interventions to soil health, highlighting the need for targeted and effective policy decisions. It also underscores the importance of maintaining robust databases, such as the JRC's Farming Practices Evidence Library, to support policy design and evaluation with sound scientific evidence.

Overall, the study serves as a first step towards more refined and comprehensive assessments, with recommendations for future improvements, including data on the actual uptake of CAP interventions and coefficients tailored to specific pedoclimatic conditions.