Evaluation of 2014-2020 RDP agro-environmental measures in Cyprus

The evaluation concerns the 2014-2020 Rural Development Programme (RDP) and follows the provisions of the 2014-2020 Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF). The evaluation includes the values ​​of the output and result indicators dated 31 December 2018. It constitutes a final deliverable, presenting the progress of implementing RDP measures related to the environment (Measures 10-13), their contribution to the values of the impact indicators (I. 10 and I.11), and addressing relevant common questions. In addition, it presents a series of good practices from the implementation of agri-environmental measures in other Member States and the formulation of proposals/examination of the possibility of their implementation. The study refers to an appendix that is not available.

The evaluation aims to examine both the progress of the implementation of agri-environmental measures and also others based on the intervention logic to serving the objectives of the fourth priority (restoring, preserving and enhancing ecosystems related to agriculture and forestry, with a focus on the following areas) and to assess the impacts of the implementation of the interventions in Focus Area 4B (improving water management, including fertilizer and pesticide management) and Focus Area 5A (increasing efficiency in water use by agriculture).

The relevant Common Evaluation Question (CEQ) were CEQ9 (to what extent have RDP interventions supported improved water management, including fertilizer and pesticide management?) and CEQ11 (To what extent have RDP interventions contributed to increasing the efficiency of water use by agriculture?).

Different methodological approaches have been used to answer common questions.

For answering CEQ9 and the assessment of the contribution of the RDP to the impact indicator I.11. (water quality (and reduction of pesticide use if possible)), the method 'treatment effects (counterfactuals – control groups)' was used.

For the creation of matched pairs between regulatory zones, the total area under aid from Measure 13 in the zone, as well as other parameters (through sampling unit altitude, soil cover elements, average mechanical composition of the soil, etc.), were used. The sampled surfaces classified as the control group are surfaces in the spatial unit for which no area was found in any of the regimes of Measures 10 or 11.

Accordingly, sample handling units (beneficiaries) have areas supported by M10 and 11. For reasons of statistical comparability of the beneficiary-control group, the average treatment effect (ATE) method and the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) method were used to 'isolate' the net contribution of the RDP.

For answering CEQ11 and assessing the contribution of RDP measures, particularly the impact of crop rotation on the impact indicator I.10 (water abstraction in agriculture), several scenarios involving crops of different plants were designed. Based on these scenarios, the potential water savings were estimated. Also, for the assessment of the impact of Measure 4.3.2 (use of recycled water in agriculture), the methodology 'case study' was used.

For data sources, cartographic backgrounds were used.

In addition, the CORINE 2018 data (Chart Background of the European Environment Committee on Land Use Classification in the EU), the cartographic background of ESDAC (LUCAS Soils) reflects the mechanical composition of soils in percentage of sand, clay and sludge.

A recent elevation of Cyprus (data elevation model) was also used. For the processing of the geodata, ArcMap and spatial join tools, zonal statistics as table, and others were redefined in the WGS_1984_UTH_Zone_36N system, the waterbase-quality database of the Eionet network.

Finally, the statistical software STATA was used for the analysis.

Τhe gradual but significant improvement in the quality of groundwater and surface water is the result of the long-term implementation of Measures 10 and 11 and of the previous programming periods. The large quantitative deviation of the values of excess nitrogen and phosphorus between Eurostat data and the values of the recent study does not allow a quantitative assessment of the contribution of the RDP. However, given that the trend is decreasing for the amount of N,P/Kg/Ha utilised agricutlural area combined with the improvement of the quality status of groundwater and surface water and the absence of herbicide concentrations, it directly demonstrates a positive impact and serves the objectives of Focus Area 4B.

The programme's contribution to the focus area is very positive and significant, but it has the potential to achieve even more and have a greater impact. This is imperative because water abstraction leads to long-term water supply but also imposes severe restrictions on Cyprus's agriculture, mainly under adverse climate change scenarios. Actions directly targeting the agricultural holding (private investments) in focus area 5A have not been activated to a large extent. Public investment, as demonstrated in the case of the use of recycled water, is promising because it is agriculturally efficient, environmentally acceptable and prevents waste of water resources.

Agro-environmental actions, especially those aimed at crop rotation of aquatic crops, also make a very good contribution to the management of water resources. Also, agri-environmental actions are spatially located in areas where groundwater bodies are under pressure from excessive water abstraction. However, in quantitative terms, their contribution is not so significant because they relate to a relatively small area. Also, these actions, aiming primarily at nutrient reduction, do not effectively control water use. It might be possible to study additional restrictions on irrigation as part of the obligations of farmers subsidised by these graded operations with regard to the location of the farm in an aquifer zone pressured by excessive water abstraction and other accompanying criteria related to water management and consumption.