Practice Abstract - Research and innovation

Using modelling tools to support better farming and policy decisions

Denmark, Hungary, Netherlands, Switzerland, The United Kingdom

Nature-based Solutions (NBS) require farmers and policymakers to balance environmental, economic and social trade-offs. Within trans4num, a suite of complementary modelling tools was developed to explore future scenarios before actions are implemented. By combining Decision Support Tools (DST), Agent-Based Models (ABM) and Food System Models (FSM), stakeholders can assess the impacts of management practices and policy options, reducing uncertainty and supporting evidence-based decision-making.

The need

Farmers and policymakers need practical tools to plan the transition to more sustainable agriculture. Decisions on NBS involve trade-offs between productivity, environmental performance and costs, yet many existing models are either too technical or poorly adapted to real-world decision-making. There is therefore a need for models that reflect conditions across the entire value chain while remaining simple, transparent and easy to interpret.

The benefits

Well-designed modelling tools allow stakeholders to test alternative scenarios before implementation, reducing risks and improving decision-making. They support better targeted policies, more effective incentives and wider adoption of sustainable practices by answering practical questions such as:

  • What happens if new nitrogen policies are introduced?
  • What if nature-based solutions are scaled up?
  • What are the trade-offs between production, environmental performance and costs?

Early applications, including the Danish ABM prototype, demonstrated the ability to assess farmer behaviour, profitability and environmental outcomes. Stakeholder feedback also highlighted that models must remain transparent and understandable to avoid being perceived as "black boxes".

Additional information

trans4num solution

trans4num developed three complementary modelling approaches to support decision-making at different scales:

  • Decision Support Tool (DST): optimises the spatial allocation of NBS to reduce environmental impacts, improve ecological performance and maintain agricultural productivity while balancing economic constraints.
  • Agent-Based Models (ABM): simulate farmer decision-making by considering production costs, social interactions and policy incentives.
  • Food System Models (FSM): evaluate how changes in farming, commodity processing and resource use affect food production, nutrient flows and environmental performance at regional and national levels.

The tools were co-developed and tested with farmers, advisors, policymakers and researchers to ensure they remain relevant, understandable and practical. They support "what-if" analyses before policies or investments are implemented and facilitate dialogue between stakeholders by reflecting real farming conditions, policy objectives and practical constraints.

Challenges / limitations

Models can be difficult to understand without expert support, results may be questioned if tools appear as "black boxes", differences between research and policy timelines can limit uptake, and limited data, incentives or supportive policies may reduce practical impact.

Resources needed

Successful implementation requires skilled facilitators, early stakeholder involvement, reliable local and national datasets, balanced investment in research, capacity building and stakeholder engagement, and intermediary organisations that connect science, policy and practice. Co-design with end users is essential to ensure modelling tools answer relevant questions and support informed, evidence-based decisions.

Source Project
Transformation for sustainable nutrient supply and management
Ongoing | 2022-2026
Main funding source
Horizon Europe (EU Research and Innovation Programme)
Geographical location
Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Netherlands, Romania, Switzerland, The United Kingdom, China
Project details

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